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La estrategia del calcetín

Contrainformación y lucha

La estrategia del calcetín

Publicado el Lunes, 1 de Septiembre de 2008 a las 11:15 am en la categoría General

La estrategia del calcetín es simple, darle la vuelta. Al margen del poco higiénico resultado real, la estrategia del calcetín es una metáfora utilizada para referirse al aumento de oportunidades en una situación de crisis.

Una crisis supone un cambio de escenario, obviamente a peor, pero ante todo un cambio que permite una reconfiguración de la situación en la que se presentan nuevas oportunidades que pueden suponer una gran ventaja para los avispados que sepan-puedan aprovecharlas.

La crisis actual, como todas las crisis, tendrá grandes perjudicados pero también grandes beneficiarios. Paradójicamente, los principales causantes de ella se encontrarán seguro en el segundo grupo. Vayamos por partes.

El origen coyuntural de esta crisis se encuentra en las rebuscadas operaciones de la economía financiera. Los tipos de interés en los últimos años han registrado mínimos históricos. Estos regulan el interés que reciben los bancos cuando prestan dinero. Al ser tan bajos, los bancos recibirían menos dinero lo que se compensa con un mayor número de operaciones. En un escenario de fuerte crecimiento económico esto es así ya que personas y empresas con una situación solvente se pueden permitir endeudarse para invertir. Así que la Banca nunca pierde; cobran menos por sus préstamos pero hacen más prestamos, tontos no son.

El problema no es que no sean tontos sino que se pasan de listos. Con menos dinero por préstamo pero mayor número de préstamos ganarían lo mismo. Pero ganando lo mismo no se hace uno banquero, hay que ganar más.

Así que se lanzan a conceder aún más préstamos, en EE.UU. las llamadas hipotecas sub-prime. Y aquí empieza el lío, aunque aplicándonos a nosotros mismos “la estrategia del calcetín”, un lío puede ser muy esclarecedor.

Los bancos empiezan a prestar dinero a los llamados NINJA (no income, no job, no assets), es decir, personas sin ingresos fijos, sin empleo fijo y sin propiedades. Pudiera parecer (si eres muy muy necio) que los bancos hacían una buena obra de caridad. Yo personalmente veo muy bien que se le preste dinero a esos pobres NINJA (aunque yo defiendo que se les preste sin interés, de ahí mi fracasada carrera como banquero). Pero los banqueros de verdad no se movían precisamente por caridad. Para aumentar el número de préstamos y ganar más dinero, había que dejarle dinero a más gente, como los pobres NINJA, con la ventaja añadida de que al ser préstamos más arriesgados podrían cobran un interés mayor.

Todo un alarde de inteligencia por parte de los banqueros. Lástima que los estúpidos NINJA lo estropearan cuando empezaron a no pagar esos préstamos. Con tal estupidez, no es de extrañar que no tengan ingresos fijos, empleo fijo y ni propiedades.

En este punto, es necesario reflexionar sobre el comienzo de esta crisis. En primer lugar para que los bancos pudieran prestar más dinero esto tenía que ser aprobado por los bancos centrales, en EEUU la Reserva Federal y en Europa el Banco Central Europeo.

Los bancos centrales son como el gobierno de los bancos. Son muy democráticos ya que en realidad están gobernados por los propios bancos. Se aplican el lema zapatista de “mandar obedeciendo”. Respecto a los ciudadanos y gobiernos, eso sí, tienen total independencia. Es decir que son una especie de democracia griega, con ciudadanos de pleno derecho (los bancos) y esclavos (los gobiernos y ciudadanos).

Pues bien, lo que hicieron los bancos centrales es obviamente lo que le pedían los bancos, permitirles prestar más dinero. Supuestamente hay un límite del total del dinero que un banco puede prestar. Es decir, no se puede tener todo el dinero por ahí prestado ya que los bancos deben garantizar también los depósitos de la gente que ingresa en ellos sus ahorros (todas las personas excepto las que se aplican una variante de “la estrategia del calcetín” que consiste en meter en él todos tus ahorros y guardarlo debajo de la almohada). La razón para estos límites es que está feo que cuando vas al calcetín a coger tus eurillos este te diga que no lo tiene, que se lo prestó a un zapato. Pero a diferencia de los calcetines, que son personales y sólo guardan el dinero de su legítimo dueño, los bancos guardan el dinero de muchos y prestan dinero a mucha gente. Así que pueden permitirse -para envidia del calcetín- prestar el dinero que guardaste en ellos y, si vas a recogerlo, darte el que guardó otra persona. Mientras no vayamos todos a la vez a coger nuestro dinero no hay problema.

Pero por si, aunque no todos, muchos van al banco a coger su dinero a la vez, estos estaban obligados a tener un alto porcentaje de dinero en depósito con el cual responder a esta situación.

Lo que hicieron los bancos centrales es dejarle a los bancos prestar más dinero y tener menos en depósito, recuerda; “mandar obedeciendo”. Así que los bancos prestaron más dinero y en préstamos más arriesgados.

Pero entonces los NINJA vinieron a aguar la fiesta y dejaron de pagar sus préstamos. Los bancos se preocuparon y también los bancos centrales. Pero por supuesto no se preocuparon por los pobres NINJA, que quizás dejaron de pagar por que no podían hacerlo y ahora se encuentran sin ingresos, sin empleo, sin propiedades y encima embargados. Se preocuparon por ellos mismos, por cobrar sus préstamos e intereses, por que preocupándote por los demás no se llega a ser banquero, y mucho menos el gobierno de los bancos.

Además, como la economía financiera es toda una obra de arte, los bancos, empresas, fondos de inversión, inversores privados, etc, se prestan, se compran y se venden entre si. Pero no se prestan el mechero ni se compran y venden pulseritas como hacemos los hippies. Ellos, los yuppies, se compran, venden y prestan “valores intangibles”, que no son amor, amistad o paz (eso para los hippies) sino títulos de deuda y cosas así.

Es como cuando tras una comida al que recoge el dinero para pagar le empezamos a decir que yo le di tanto a este, así que con lo suyo pague lo que me presto tal que tiene lo que cual le debe a uno. Al final el que va a la barra siempre tiene que poner más.

Pues así es como los impresentables NINJA crearon desconfianza entre los bancos, que ya no sabían muy bien quien debía a quien y nadie quería ir a la barra a pagar. Así que dejaron de prestarse dinero y empezaron a mirar en sus calcetines (soy de la teoría de que dentro de las cajas fuertes de los bancos hay calcetines llenos de dinero) a ver cuanto dinero tenían realmente. Y resulta que faltaba dinero. Al principio pensaron que los calcetines tuvieran el típico agujero en el dedo gordo, pero no era así porque los bancos no tienen calcetines piojosos de mercadillo sino estupendos calcetines de marca, con la punta reforzada.

Preocupados, los bancos fueron a quejarse a los bancos centrales. Si estos bancos centrales estuvieran al servicio de los ciudadanos, los NINJA podrían haber ido también a quejarse para que los ayudaran a pagar sus deudas, pero como los bancos centrales son “independientes” de ciudadanos y gobiernos estos no pueden pedirles nada. Eso sí, con el dinero de ciudadanos y gobiernos corren a ayudar a los pobres bancos a los que los NINJA han hecho llorar.

Y aquí empieza la verdadera estrategia del calcetín. Los tontos, NINJAS y ciudadanos en general, pagamos con el dinero de todos los errores de los bancos.

Además como empiezan a no prestar dinero tras el susto se frena la inversión y la economía en general se resiente. Crece el desempleo y baja el consumo. Para que los bancos que ahora no quieren prestar dinero no dejen por ello de ganar, se suben los tipos de interés. Recordemos; antes la ecuación era menos interés y más operaciones, ahora que hay menos operaciones, pues tiene que haber más interés; la banca nunca pierde.

Pero si pierden las familias con hipotecas que tienen que pagar más por el dinero prestado. Al final los NINJA siguen sin trabajo, sin ingresos y sin propiedades y ahora también sin casa y endeudados (a ellos no los salva ningún NINJA Central Europeo), los hipotecados tienen que pagar más y el empleo decrece, con lo cual a poco que se tuerza su situación (un despido, un gasto extra, una deuda sin cobrar) se ven como los NINJA. Como los inversores retiran su dinero a valores más seguros, suben los precios de productos básicos como los alimentos provocando incluso hambrunas en los países empobrecidos (y ahora quien le explica a un pobre etíope que son las sub-prime). Al final, todos los ciudadanos se ven afectados.

Pero como postula “la estrategia del calcetín” toda crisis es una oportunidad (para los listos claro).

Así que los bancos reciben dinero de nuestros impuestos para salvar su situación. Si esto no basta se puede llegar incluso a nacionalizarlos como ha ocurrido en Inglaterra. Pero no se asusten, el “nuevo laborismo” británico no va a volver a la estrategia de nacionalización de la “vieja izquierda”, ellos sólo nacionalizan las pérdidas.

Los grandes inversores retiran su dinero a tiempo. Los pequeños sin embargo -los protagonistas del llamado “capitalismo popular” que invertían parte de sus ingresos en acciones- se enteran de la película cuando ya es demasiado tarde y se arrepienten de no haber metido sus ahorros en el calcetín.

Las empresas aprovechan para despedir personal o para aumentar su explotación, ya que, acojonados ante la crisis, los trabajadores prefieren no quejarse. Para esto cuentan con la inestimable ayuda de los sindicatos “responsables” que llaman a “apretarse el cinturón”.

Igualmente los gobiernos neoliberales proponen reformas laborales. Paradójicamente como señala ATTAC, ante un fallo del mercado de capitales se propone reformar el mercado de trabajo.

Hasta los anuncios publicitarios utilizan la crisis como reclamo para sus productos (sobre todo los fabricantes de calcetines que esperan un fuerte incremento de sus ventas).

En fin que como ha dicho Botín, no es él quien está en crisis. Yo por si acaso trataré de que mis calcetines gastados me duren un año más. Esta es “la estrategia del calcetín” de los pobres (y tontos).

Ozecai

 

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  • RSS Nodo50


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  • RSS Rebelión

  • RSS Kaos en la Red

    • Un error ha ocurrido; el Feed probablemente esté caído. Vuelva a intentarlo después.
  • RSS A las barricadas

    • Un error ha ocurrido; el Feed probablemente esté caído. Vuelva a intentarlo después.
  • COLECTIVOS

    La Fábrica de Sombreros
    La Fábrica de Sombreros

    SAN BERNARDO
    Sin Nombre

    Centro Vecinal Pumarejo
    Centro Vecinal Pumarejo

    El Ecolocal
    El Ecolocal

    Casa de la Paz
    Casa de la Paz

    Ateneo Tierra y Libertad
    Ateneo Tierra y Libertad

    Foro Social de Sevilla
    Foro Social de Sevilla

    La Calle es de Todxs
    La Calle es de Todxs

    Grupo 17 de Marzo
    Grupo 17 de Marzo

    Zemos 98
    Zemos 98

    Plataforma de Reflexión de Políticas Culturales
    Plataforma de Reflexión de Políticas Culturales

    Espacio Revolucionario Andaluz
    Espacio Revolucionario Andaluz

    En Lucha
    En Lucha

    Corriente Roja
    Corriente Roja

    Jaleo
    Jaleo

    Huerto del Rey Moro
    Huerto del Rey Moro

    Librerias La Fuga
    Librerias La Fuga

    Librería Atrapasueños
    Librería Atrapasueños

    Librería La Araña
    Librería La Araña

    Radiopolis (98.4 FM)
    Radiopolis (98.4 FM)

    Hackarena
    Hackarena

    CGT Sevilla
    CGT Sevilla

    CNT Sevilla
    CNT Sevilla

    SOC-SAT Sevilla
    SOC-SAT Sevilla

    Ustea Sevilla
    Ustea Sevilla

    Bar Las Sirenas
    Bar Las Sirenas

    La Yesca
    La Yesca

    Indymedia Estrecho
    Indymedia Estrecho

    Ecologistas en Acción Sevilla
    Ecologistas en Acción Sevilla

    Asociación Pro-derechos Humanos de Andalucía Sevilla
    Asociación Pro-derechos Humanos de Andalucía Sevilla

    CUT-BAI
    CUT-BAI

    ACS
    Arquitectura y Compromiso Social

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